Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Embellence Group AB (publ) (EMBELL.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.05 - $25.64$21.79
Multi-Stage$28.40 - $31.12$29.73
Blended Fair Value$25.76
Current Price$37.40
Upside-31.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.770.770.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%3.24%3.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.808.004.80
Cash Retained (M)35.0035.0035.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.80-8.00-4.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.2027.0030.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.5423.5423.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.941.151.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.231.231.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.941.151.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.182.382.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$18.05$21.79$25.64
Upside / Downside-51.74%-41.75%-31.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.0063.3662.7362.1061.4860.8662.69
Payout Ratio45.31%54.25%63.19%72.13%81.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0034.3739.6444.7949.8454.7857.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.81%9.81%9.81%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9931.3031.62
Year 2 PV (M)32.2132.8733.54
Year 3 PV (M)32.8133.8334.86
Year 4 PV (M)32.9134.2735.68
Year 5 PV (M)32.6134.3136.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)506.88533.28560.76
Equity Value (M)668.41699.86732.53
Shares Outstanding (M)23.5423.5423.54
Fair Value$28.40$29.73$31.12
Upside / Downside-24.07%-20.50%-16.79%

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