Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Elinoil Hellenic Petroleum Company S.A. (ELIN.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $22.03$13.26
Multi-Stage$6.19 - $6.76$6.47
Blended Fair Value$9.86
Current Price$2.17
Upside354.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.65%0.00%0.110.000.070.000.000.050.060.050.160.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-16.67%15.38%-67.66%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.98%0.00%3.51%0.00%0.00%3.42%3.51%3.25%21.35%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.891.180.71
Cash Retained (M)6.876.876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.89-1.18-0.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.985.696.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.7123.7123.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.84$13.26$22.03
Upside / Downside307.52%510.95%915.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.4310.0410.6911.3912.1312.9213.31
Payout Ratio27.16%39.73%52.30%64.86%77.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.563.995.597.399.3911.6312.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.29%9.29%9.29%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3.623.653.68
Year 2 PV (M)4.594.684.77
Year 3 PV (M)5.505.665.82
Year 4 PV (M)6.346.586.83
Year 5 PV (M)7.117.467.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)119.60125.38131.38
Equity Value (M)146.76153.41160.29
Shares Outstanding (M)23.7123.7123.71
Fair Value$6.19$6.47$6.76
Upside / Downside185.19%198.10%211.49%

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