Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.69 - $851.56$373.34
Multi-Stage$93.66 - $102.47$97.98
Blended Fair Value$235.66
Current Price$35.06
Upside572.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.26%9.27%1.482.935.322.070.400.220.230.200.350.62
YoY Growth---49.57%-45.01%156.96%411.67%83.57%-6.04%17.32%-42.53%-44.19%2.59%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.74%10.51%3.50%1.85%3.19%0.74%0.63%0.83%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,719.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)613.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,106.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)543.80339.88203.93
Cash Retained (M)2,106.002,106.002,106.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-543.80-339.88-203.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,562.201,766.131,902.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.970.970.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.462.783.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.433.753.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$174.69$373.34$851.56
Upside / Downside398.26%964.86%2,328.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,719.002,895.743,083.963,284.423,497.903,725.273,837.02
Payout Ratio22.55%36.04%49.53%63.02%76.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)613.001,043.511,527.392,069.772,676.213,352.743,549.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.57%7.57%7.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)960.98970.08979.19
Year 2 PV (M)1,295.341,320.011,344.92
Year 3 PV (M)1,616.491,662.891,710.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,924.801,998.832,074.96
Year 5 PV (M)2,220.662,327.922,439.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,453.9953,939.2356,519.60
Equity Value (M)59,472.2662,218.9765,068.14
Shares Outstanding (M)635.00635.00635.00
Fair Value$93.66$97.98$102.47
Upside / Downside167.13%179.47%192.27%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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