Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (DP4B.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,425.66 - $18,206.00$12,040.69
Multi-Stage$6,371.12 - $6,952.07$6,656.36
Blended Fair Value$9,348.53
Current Price$1,872.92
Upside399.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.23%1.66%85.15694.77437.4064.9727.4729.9633.0329.0060.88392.30
YoY Growth---87.74%58.84%573.25%136.51%-8.32%-9.28%13.88%-52.36%-84.48%442.97%
Dividend Yield--4.90%55.91%25.20%2.21%1.96%3.70%2.68%2.14%5.20%31.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,882.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,547.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,335.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,376.40860.25516.15
Cash Retained (M)4,335.004,335.004,335.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,376.40-860.25-516.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,958.603,474.753,818.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.6515.6515.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share189.00221.97243.95
LTM Dividend per Share162.71162.71162.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share189.00221.97243.95
(=) Adjusted Dividend351.71384.68406.66
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.37%6.37%7.37%
Fair Value$8,425.66$12,040.69$18,206.00
Upside / Downside349.87%542.88%872.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,882.007,320.047,785.968,281.548,808.669,369.349,650.42
Payout Ratio37.01%47.61%58.21%68.80%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,547.003,484.904,531.885,698.026,994.258,432.408,926.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate5.37%6.37%7.37%
Year 1 PV (M)3,145.083,174.933,204.78
Year 2 PV (M)3,691.143,761.533,832.59
Year 3 PV (M)4,188.384,308.774,431.45
Year 4 PV (M)4,639.864,818.535,002.30
Year 5 PV (M)5,048.435,292.585,546.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,020.6982,842.4086,810.57
Equity Value (M)99,733.57104,198.74108,827.79
Shares Outstanding (M)15.6515.6515.65
Fair Value$6,371.12$6,656.36$6,952.07
Upside / Downside240.17%255.40%271.19%

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