Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.44 - $42.85$33.06
Multi-Stage$34.67 - $37.85$36.23
Blended Fair Value$34.65
Current Price$52.34
Upside-33.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%-5.04%2.041.801.360.311.221.191.241.251.241.31
YoY Growth--13.28%33.14%343.83%-74.87%1.92%-3.59%-0.83%0.64%-5.23%-61.85%
Dividend Yield--6.22%2.98%2.80%0.77%3.40%4.86%2.52%2.58%4.37%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)393.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)379.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.7049.1929.51
Cash Retained (M)14.0314.0314.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.70-49.19-29.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-64.67-35.16-15.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$25.44$33.06$42.85
Upside / Downside-51.39%-36.84%-18.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)393.49404.34415.49426.95438.72450.81464.34
Payout Ratio96.43%95.15%93.86%92.57%91.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)379.46384.72389.98395.24400.49405.73429.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)351.38354.83358.28
Year 2 PV (M)325.31331.74338.22
Year 3 PV (M)301.12310.09319.23
Year 4 PV (M)278.68289.79301.24
Year 5 PV (M)257.85270.77284.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,032.395,284.575,546.77
Equity Value (M)6,546.736,841.797,147.95
Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
Fair Value$34.67$36.23$37.85
Upside / Downside-33.76%-30.78%-27.68%

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