Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Cyrela Brazil Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participações (CYRE3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$53.51 - $85.98$68.18
Multi-Stage$69.38 - $76.13$72.69
Blended Fair Value$70.44
Current Price$30.70
Upside129.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-22.47%2.75%0.610.860.070.551.642.181.170.100.290.43
YoY Growth---29.45%1,166.78%-87.54%-66.52%-24.88%85.76%1,096.24%-66.30%-32.06%-8.01%
Dividend Yield--2.55%3.53%0.48%3.10%6.52%14.94%6.90%0.59%2.03%3.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,821.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,597.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)364.24227.65136.59
Cash Retained (M)1,597.441,597.441,597.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-364.24-227.65-136.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,233.201,369.791,460.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)366.77366.77366.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.363.733.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.363.733.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.974.344.59
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Fair Value$53.51$68.18$85.98
Upside / Downside74.29%122.07%180.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,821.191,861.101,901.901,943.581,986.192,029.722,090.61
Payout Ratio12.29%27.83%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.75517.92824.881,145.051,478.861,826.751,933.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.70%8.70%8.70%
Growth Rate1.19%2.19%3.19%
Year 1 PV (M)471.78476.45481.11
Year 2 PV (M)684.47698.07711.79
Year 3 PV (M)865.50891.42917.84
Year 4 PV (M)1,018.251,059.101,101.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,145.741,203.491,263.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,262.1722,333.7323,448.06
Equity Value (M)25,447.9226,662.2427,923.51
Shares Outstanding (M)366.77366.77366.77
Fair Value$69.38$72.69$76.13
Upside / Downside126.01%136.79%147.99%

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