Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.67 - $185.90$150.29
Multi-Stage$144.64 - $158.63$151.50
Blended Fair Value$150.90
Current Price$542.94
Upside-72.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.34%2.38%0.830.800.760.750.740.740.690.650.610.64
YoY Growth--4.65%5.11%0.42%1.72%-0.09%7.11%6.42%7.25%-4.37%-3.56%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.31%0.43%0.50%0.63%0.80%0.62%0.48%0.67%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)465.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)432.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.0258.1434.88
Cash Retained (M)432.17432.17432.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.02-58.14-34.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.15374.03397.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.9737.9737.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8510.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.939.8510.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8010.7211.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Fair Value$119.67$150.29$185.90
Upside / Downside-77.96%-72.32%-65.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)465.08476.05487.28498.77510.54522.58538.26
Payout Ratio7.08%23.66%40.25%56.83%73.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.92112.64196.11283.46374.81470.32497.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate1.36%2.36%3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)101.72102.72103.73
Year 2 PV (M)159.92163.09166.29
Year 3 PV (M)208.73214.96221.33
Year 4 PV (M)249.23259.21269.49
Year 5 PV (M)282.40296.61311.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,490.124,716.034,950.95
Equity Value (M)5,492.125,752.636,023.17
Shares Outstanding (M)37.9737.9737.97
Fair Value$144.64$151.50$158.63
Upside / Downside-73.36%-72.10%-70.78%

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