Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited (CTC-A.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$177.19 - $312.73$234.66
Multi-Stage$290.25 - $318.60$304.16
Blended Fair Value$269.41
Current Price$165.67
Upside62.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.21%9.79%6.536.555.914.924.774.404.033.082.862.76
YoY Growth---0.28%10.74%20.18%3.12%8.41%9.09%31.00%7.75%3.48%7.64%
Dividend Yield--4.37%4.86%3.35%2.61%2.68%5.18%2.77%1.85%1.81%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)367.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.9891.2454.74
Cash Retained (M)367.20367.20367.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.98-91.24-54.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.22275.96312.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.1055.1055.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.015.015.67
LTM Dividend per Share6.586.586.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.015.015.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6011.5912.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Fair Value$177.19$234.66$312.73
Upside / Downside6.95%41.64%88.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.90742.72755.77769.05782.56796.31820.20
Payout Ratio49.69%57.75%65.82%73.88%81.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.70428.95497.41568.15641.22716.68758.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate0.76%1.76%2.76%
Year 1 PV (M)397.75401.70405.65
Year 2 PV (M)427.70436.23444.84
Year 3 PV (M)452.99466.61480.51
Year 4 PV (M)474.07493.17512.85
Year 5 PV (M)491.33516.20542.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,749.8814,445.8915,169.81
Equity Value (M)15,993.7216,759.8117,555.72
Shares Outstanding (M)55.1055.1055.10
Fair Value$290.25$304.16$318.60
Upside / Downside75.20%83.59%92.31%

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