Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.83 - $114.22$93.27
Multi-Stage$97.87 - $107.40$102.55
Blended Fair Value$97.91
Current Price$245.54
Upside-60.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.76%0.62%0.800.790.780.770.770.770.760.680.670.69
YoY Growth--0.75%1.52%0.51%0.26%0.77%0.52%12.21%0.88%-2.01%-8.18%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.50%1.16%2.49%2.36%4.22%1.48%1.16%1.40%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)413.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)373.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.7451.7131.03
Cash Retained (M)373.40373.40373.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.74-51.71-31.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)290.66321.69342.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.6050.6050.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.746.366.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.746.366.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.547.157.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Fair Value$74.83$93.27$114.22
Upside / Downside-69.52%-62.02%-53.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)413.70420.30427.01433.82440.75447.78461.21
Payout Ratio9.74%25.79%41.84%57.90%73.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.30108.41178.68251.17325.92403.00426.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate0.60%1.60%2.60%
Year 1 PV (M)98.1399.10100.08
Year 2 PV (M)146.40149.33152.28
Year 3 PV (M)186.28191.89197.61
Year 4 PV (M)218.80227.63236.72
Year 5 PV (M)244.89257.30270.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,057.894,263.634,477.63
Equity Value (M)4,952.385,188.885,434.55
Shares Outstanding (M)50.6050.6050.60
Fair Value$97.87$102.55$107.40
Upside / Downside-60.14%-58.24%-56.26%

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