Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust (CRR-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.57 - $22.87$16.85
Multi-Stage$21.11 - $23.15$22.11
Blended Fair Value$19.48
Current Price$14.87
Upside31.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.670.660.670.740.760.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1.08%-1.29%-8.80%-3.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.71%4.85%4.41%4.02%4.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32.6320.3912.24
Cash Retained (M)39.1139.1139.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-32.63-20.39-12.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.4818.7126.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.07184.07184.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.670.670.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.100.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate0.89%1.89%2.89%
Fair Value$12.57$16.85$22.87
Upside / Downside-15.44%13.32%53.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163.14166.22169.36172.56175.82179.14184.51
Payout Ratio76.03%78.82%81.62%84.41%87.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.03131.02138.23145.66153.32161.22170.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate0.89%1.89%2.89%
Year 1 PV (M)121.73122.93124.14
Year 2 PV (M)119.32121.69124.09
Year 3 PV (M)116.81120.32123.90
Year 4 PV (M)114.24118.84123.57
Year 5 PV (M)111.61117.25123.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,302.603,469.553,643.19
Equity Value (M)3,886.304,070.584,262.01
Shares Outstanding (M)184.07184.07184.07
Fair Value$21.11$22.11$23.15
Upside / Downside41.98%48.72%55.71%

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