DDM Analysis: COF

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$43.63 - $80.34	$58.76
Multi-Stage	$55.34 - $60.47	$57.86
Blended Fair Value	$58.31
Current Price	$212.58
Upside	-72.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.36%	3.22%	1.95	1.95	1.99	2.40	0.96	1.57	1.62	1.63	1.70	1.71
YoY Growth	-	-	0.11%	-2.00%	-17.25%	149.57%	-38.91%	-2.59%	-0.90%	-3.94%	-0.49%	20.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.09%	1.34%	2.07%	1.83%	0.76%	3.12%	1.91%	1.70%	1.96%	2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,416.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,240.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	176.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	283.20	177.00	106.20
Cash Retained (M)	176.00	176.00	176.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-283.20	-177.00	-106.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-107.20	-1.00	69.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	478.13	478.13	478.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.22	0.00	0.15
LTM Dividend per Share	2.59	2.59	2.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.22	0.00	0.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.37	2.59	2.74
WACC / Discount Rate	7.92%	7.92%	7.92%
Growth Rate	2.36%	3.36%	4.36%
Fair Value	$43.63	$58.76	$80.34
Upside / Downside	-79.48%	-72.36%	-62.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,416.00	1,463.54	1,512.68	1,563.47	1,615.97	1,670.23	1,720.34
Payout Ratio	87.57%	88.06%	88.54%	89.03%	89.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,240.00	1,288.75	1,339.37	1,391.93	1,446.52	1,503.21	1,591.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.92%	7.92%	7.92%
Growth Rate	2.36%	3.36%	4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,182.66	1,194.21	1,205.77
Year 2 PV (M)	1,127.93	1,150.08	1,172.44
Year 3 PV (M)	1,075.71	1,107.55	1,140.00
Year 4 PV (M)	1,025.87	1,066.55	1,108.43
Year 5 PV (M)	978.31	1,027.05	1,077.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	21,067.15	22,116.55	23,207.35
Equity Value (M)	26,457.63	27,661.98	28,911.70
Shares Outstanding (M)	478.13	478.13	478.13
Fair Value	$55.34	$57.86	$60.47
Upside / Downside	-73.97%	-72.78%	-71.55%

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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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