DDM Analysis: CNQ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$106.44 - $613.90	$195.18
Multi-Stage	$65.72 - $71.72	$68.67
Blended Fair Value	$131.92
Current Price	$44.49
Upside	196.52%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.50%	16.58%	2.11	1.85	2.35	0.82	0.93	0.83	0.74	0.60	0.36	0.60
YoY Growth	-	-	13.83%	-21.01%	187.13%	-12.02%	11.88%	11.59%	24.76%	65.17%	-39.41%	30.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	3.56%	6.27%	2.11%	4.79%	8.71%	3.99%	3.01%	1.65%	3.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	6,655.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,755.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,331.00	831.88	499.13
Cash Retained (M)	1,900.00	1,900.00	1,900.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,331.00	-831.88	-499.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	569.00	1,068.13	1,400.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
LTM Dividend per Share	2.26	2.26	2.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.27	0.51	0.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.54	2.77	2.93
WACC / Discount Rate	8.01%	8.01%	8.01%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$106.44	$195.18	$613.90
Upside / Downside	139.24%	338.69%	1,279.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	6,655.00	7,087.58	7,548.27	8,038.90	8,561.43	9,117.93	9,391.46
Payout Ratio	71.45%	75.16%	78.87%	82.58%	86.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,755.00	5,327.02	5,953.32	6,638.53	7,387.66	8,206.13	8,687.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.01%	8.01%	8.01%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,885.51	4,931.82	4,978.12
Year 2 PV (M)	5,007.37	5,102.74	5,199.02
Year 3 PV (M)	5,120.91	5,267.91	5,417.70
Year 4 PV (M)	5,226.46	5,427.45	5,634.19
Year 5 PV (M)	5,324.32	5,581.49	5,848.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	112,425.83	117,856.04	123,494.08
Equity Value (M)	137,990.39	144,167.45	150,571.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,099.52	2,099.52	2,099.52
Fair Value	$65.72	$68.67	$71.72
Upside / Downside	47.73%	54.34%	61.20%

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Ticker ⇵	Company ⇵	Dividend Yield % ▼	Dividend Per Share ⇵	Payout Ratio % ⇵
688267.SS	China Catalyst Holding Co., Ltd.	1.26%	$0.35	34.87%
8848.T	Leopalace21 Corporation	1.26%	$8.31	27.11%
BAUH4.SA	Excelsior Alimentos S.A.	1.26%	$1.17	21.88%
CAST.ST	Castellum AB (publ)	1.26%	$1.33	21.53%
CRH	CRH plc	1.26%	$1.60	33.62%
HBEL.BO	Humming Bird Education Limited	1.26%	$0.30	36.54%
JCI	Johnson Controls International plc	1.26%	$1.54	56.71%
KOG.OL	Kongsberg Gruppen ASA	1.26%	$3.40	42.40%
OEM-B.ST	OEM International AB (publ)	1.26%	$1.74	40.26%
SAREGAMA.BO	Saregama India Limited	1.26%	$4.51	42.77%
SDPC.JK	PT Millennium Pharmacon International Tbk	1.26%	$2.00	15.16%
002448.SZ	ZYNP Corporation	1.25%	$0.16	32.06%
0QLU.L	Basler Kantonalbank	1.25%	$1.11	12.42%
145720.KS	Dentium Co. Ltd.	1.25%	$599.51	9.81%
204320.KS	Mando Corporation	1.25%	$820.37	29.46%
3684.TWO	Grand-Tek Technology Co., Ltd.	1.25%	$0.80	29.94%
5819.KL	Hong Leong Bank Berhad	1.25%	$0.28	13.43%
600633.SS	Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group Co.,Ltd.	1.25%	$0.16	35.54%
600850.SS	CETC Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.	1.25%	$0.37	49.83%
603329.SS	Shanghai Ace Investment & Development Co., Ltd.	1.25%	$0.14	79.14%
603920.SS	Olympic Circuit Technology Co., Ltd	1.25%	$0.61	53.40%
6632.T	JVCKENWOOD Corporation	1.25%	$15.03	12.26%
9717.T	JASTEC Co., Ltd.	1.25%	$24.25	22.00%
9719.T	SCSK Corporation	1.25%	$70.95	36.13%
ENTER.AT	Entersoft S.A.	1.25%	$0.10	20.30%
ETN	Eaton Corporation plc	1.25%	$4.08	40.54%
IRFC.BO	Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited	1.25%	$1.60	30.59%
LVC.WA	LiveChat Software S.A.	1.25%	$1.46	20.71%
ORSTED.CO	Ørsted A/S	1.25%	$1.60	10.19%
000514.SZ	Chongqing Yukaifa Co., Ltd	1.24%	$0.06	55.20%
002346.SZ	Shanghai Zhezhong Group Co.,Ltd	1.24%	$0.25	18.48%
002748.SZ	Jiangxi Selon Industrial Co., Ltd.	1.24%	$0.16	89.09%
1976.T	MEISEI INDUSTRIAL Co.,Ltd.	1.24%	$21.03	12.53%
300763.SZ	Ginlong Technologies Co., Ltd.	1.24%	$0.88	39.17%
600871.SS	Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation	1.24%	$0.03	81.02%
603585.SS	Suli Co., Ltd.	1.24%	$0.23	35.70%
605116.SS	Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.	1.24%	$0.31	29.49%
ALWED.PA	Wedia S.A.	1.24%	$0.38	21.38%
MNC.WA	Mennica Polska S.A.	1.24%	$0.60	6.22%
MTHH.CO	MT Højgaard Holding A/S	1.24%	$6.49	19.74%
WALL-B.ST	Wallenstam AB (publ)	1.24%	$0.51	17.40%
WRT1V.HE	Wärtsilä Oyj Abp	1.24%	$0.38	40.46%
041830.KQ	InBody Co.,Ltd	1.23%	$400.00	16.47%
0QHK.L	SeSa S.p.A.	1.23%	$1.12	27.54%
0Y5C.L	Allegion plc	1.23%	$1.99	26.83%
300726.SZ	Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.,Ltd.	1.23%	$0.63	74.98%
300916.SZ	Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co., Ltd.	1.23%	$0.40	42.79%
4148.TW	All Cosmos Bio-Tech Holding Corporation	1.23%	$0.48	23.21%
544.SI	CSE Global Limited	1.23%	$0.01	26.84%
600104.SS	SAIC Motor Corporation Limited	1.23%	$0.19	75.02%

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Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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