Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.22 - $187.64$136.68
Multi-Stage$148.43 - $162.80$155.48
Blended Fair Value$146.08
Current Price$131.26
Upside11.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.73%10.08%3.413.303.202.772.612.462.131.981.851.59
YoY Growth--3.24%3.34%15.17%6.49%5.83%15.83%7.59%6.90%16.37%21.76%
Dividend Yield--2.43%1.86%2.00%1.65%1.79%2.26%1.76%2.10%1.88%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,296.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,176.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,120.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)859.36537.10322.26
Cash Retained (M)2,120.802,120.802,120.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-859.36-537.10-322.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,261.441,583.701,798.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.05627.05627.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.012.532.87
LTM Dividend per Share3.473.473.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.012.532.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.486.006.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Fair Value$101.22$136.68$187.64
Upside / Downside-22.88%4.13%42.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,296.804,402.394,510.584,621.434,735.004,851.364,996.90
Payout Ratio50.64%58.51%66.39%74.26%82.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,176.002,576.012,994.373,431.733,888.784,366.224,622.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)2,385.062,408.562,432.07
Year 2 PV (M)2,566.892,617.742,669.08
Year 3 PV (M)2,723.742,805.072,888.01
Year 4 PV (M)2,857.702,972.043,089.78
Year 5 PV (M)2,970.713,120.023,275.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,571.8283,571.3287,730.06
Equity Value (M)93,075.9097,494.76102,084.29
Shares Outstanding (M)627.05627.05627.05
Fair Value$148.43$155.48$162.80
Upside / Downside13.08%18.45%24.03%

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