Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CH. Karnchang Public Company Limited (CK-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.86 - $25.71$19.52
Multi-Stage$34.82 - $38.36$36.55
Blended Fair Value$28.04
Current Price$11.30
Upside148.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.71%-2.78%0.300.250.390.200.200.500.450.500.650.60
YoY Growth--20.73%-36.53%100.01%-2.13%-60.00%11.15%-10.00%-23.11%8.33%50.82%
Dividend Yield--2.18%1.08%1.90%0.97%1.12%3.28%1.79%2.08%2.40%2.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,981.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)506.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,475.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)396.36247.73148.64
Cash Retained (M)1,475.341,475.341,475.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-396.36-247.73-148.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,078.981,227.621,326.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.731,686.731,686.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.730.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.730.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Fair Value$14.86$19.52$25.71
Upside / Downside31.47%72.74%127.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,981.821,988.001,994.192,000.392,006.622,012.872,073.26
Payout Ratio25.56%38.45%51.33%64.22%77.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)506.48764.291,023.691,284.701,547.331,811.581,917.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Year 1 PV (M)716.58723.79731.01
Year 2 PV (M)899.87918.09936.48
Year 3 PV (M)1,058.821,091.131,124.09
Year 4 PV (M)1,195.671,244.561,294.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,312.481,379.901,450.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)53,546.9956,297.7559,160.40
Equity Value (M)58,730.4061,655.2164,696.98
Shares Outstanding (M)1,686.731,686.731,686.73
Fair Value$34.82$36.55$38.36
Upside / Downside208.13%223.48%239.44%

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