Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,370.57 - $1,614.82$1,513.30
Multi-Stage$857.78 - $941.65$898.93
Blended Fair Value$1,206.11
Current Price$106.91
Upside1,028.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.91%2.46%1.181.201.120.530.541.021.041.040.980.96
YoY Growth---1.70%7.45%109.81%-0.91%-47.44%-1.29%0.13%5.35%2.14%3.87%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.97%0.95%0.38%0.50%1.67%1.32%1.29%1.57%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)382.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)328.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.4147.7628.66
Cash Retained (M)328.87328.87328.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.41-47.76-28.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)252.45281.11300.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.9646.9646.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.385.996.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.385.996.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.517.127.53
WACC / Discount Rate3.80%3.80%3.80%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$1,370.57$1,513.30$1,614.82
Upside / Downside1,181.98%1,315.49%1,410.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)382.07406.10431.64458.78487.64518.31533.86
Payout Ratio13.93%29.14%44.36%59.57%74.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.20118.34191.45273.30364.68466.48493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.80%3.80%3.80%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)112.93114.00115.08
Year 2 PV (M)174.36177.69181.05
Year 3 PV (M)237.53244.36251.32
Year 4 PV (M)302.47314.12326.11
Year 5 PV (M)369.22387.09405.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,086.3640,978.0942,942.38
Equity Value (M)40,282.8642,215.3644,221.58
Shares Outstanding (M)46.9646.9646.96
Fair Value$857.78$898.93$941.65
Upside / Downside702.34%740.83%780.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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