Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$188.10 - $226.60$212.35
Multi-Stage$39.45 - $43.18$41.28
Blended Fair Value$126.82
Current Price$12.50
Upside914.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-58.69%-19.90%0.021.430.000.001.491.651.441.170.940.55
YoY Growth---98.61%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-9.85%14.78%22.69%24.25%72.15%199.95%
Dividend Yield--0.12%8.90%0.00%0.00%11.27%31.61%9.79%6.55%5.21%3.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.799.245.55
Cash Retained (M)33.2233.2233.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.79-9.24-5.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.4323.9727.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.9064.9064.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.370.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.370.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.911.001.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.01%6.01%6.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$188.10$212.35$226.60
Upside / Downside1,404.81%1,598.82%1,712.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.9478.7583.8789.3295.13101.31104.35
Payout Ratio55.08%62.06%69.05%76.03%83.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.7348.8757.9167.9178.9791.1896.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.01%6.01%6.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.6746.1046.54
Year 2 PV (M)50.5651.5352.50
Year 3 PV (M)55.4157.0058.62
Year 4 PV (M)60.2162.5364.91
Year 5 PV (M)64.9668.1071.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,283.702,394.012,508.53
Equity Value (M)2,560.522,679.262,802.45
Shares Outstanding (M)64.9064.9064.90
Fair Value$39.45$41.28$43.18
Upside / Downside215.64%230.27%245.46%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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