Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Central Securities Corp. (CET)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$224.00 - $382.93$292.85
Multi-Stage$271.68 - $297.97$284.58
Blended Fair Value$288.71
Current Price$47.86
Upside503.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.86%3.97%1.321.071.342.020.940.760.800.560.561.02
YoY Growth--23.15%-20.06%-33.41%113.89%24.89%-6.11%43.14%0.82%-45.21%13.56%
Dividend Yield--2.89%2.84%4.02%4.53%2.89%2.28%3.24%2.05%2.56%5.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)507.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)436.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)101.4063.3838.03
Cash Retained (M)436.69436.69436.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-101.40-63.38-38.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)335.29373.32398.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)28.6628.6628.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.7013.0313.91
LTM Dividend per Share2.452.452.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.7013.0313.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.1515.4816.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate1.97%2.97%3.97%
Fair Value$224.00$292.85$382.93
Upside / Downside368.02%511.88%700.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)507.00522.08537.60553.58570.04586.99604.60
Payout Ratio13.87%29.09%44.32%59.55%74.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.31151.89238.27329.64426.24528.30559.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate1.97%2.97%3.97%
Year 1 PV (M)138.74140.10141.46
Year 2 PV (M)198.79202.71206.66
Year 3 PV (M)251.21258.67266.28
Year 4 PV (M)296.70308.51320.67
Year 5 PV (M)335.89352.69370.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,564.146,892.377,233.60
Equity Value (M)7,785.478,155.048,538.82
Shares Outstanding (M)28.6628.6628.66
Fair Value$271.68$284.58$297.97
Upside / Downside467.67%494.61%522.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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