Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBAV3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.12 - $26.96$14.40
Multi-Stage$6.28 - $6.85$6.56
Blended Fair Value$10.48
Current Price$3.56
Upside194.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.65%-10.27%0.200.130.500.020.000.080.020.000.000.25
YoY Growth--56.70%-74.44%2,745.14%0.00%-100.00%337.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-57.76%
Dividend Yield--4.15%3.13%6.57%0.09%0.00%0.71%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)234.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.8329.2717.56
Cash Retained (M)104.07104.07104.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.83-29.27-17.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)57.2574.8186.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)651.07651.07651.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.12$14.40$26.96
Upside / Downside156.29%304.61%657.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)234.13249.35265.55282.82301.20320.78330.40
Payout Ratio55.55%62.44%69.33%76.22%83.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.06155.69184.11215.56250.33288.70305.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)141.72143.06144.41
Year 2 PV (M)152.55155.45158.39
Year 3 PV (M)162.58167.25172.01
Year 4 PV (M)171.86178.47185.27
Year 5 PV (M)180.42189.14198.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,278.073,436.403,600.79
Equity Value (M)4,087.204,269.774,459.04
Shares Outstanding (M)651.07651.07651.07
Fair Value$6.28$6.56$6.85
Upside / Downside76.34%84.21%92.38%

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