Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.01 - $320.95$232.84
Multi-Stage$187.67 - $204.80$196.08
Blended Fair Value$214.46
Current Price$184.75
Upside16.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.83%2.52%4.604.414.123.782.394.423.973.113.523.37
YoY Growth--4.28%7.11%8.91%58.16%-45.84%11.32%27.71%-11.80%4.41%-6.02%
Dividend Yield--2.49%3.50%4.11%4.19%2.40%6.36%4.82%4.26%4.25%4.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,524.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,572.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,952.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,904.802,440.501,464.30
Cash Retained (M)3,952.003,952.003,952.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,904.80-2,440.50-1,464.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.201,511.502,487.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,727.001,727.001,727.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.881.44
LTM Dividend per Share9.029.029.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.881.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.049.8910.46
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Fair Value$172.01$232.84$320.95
Upside / Downside-6.89%26.03%73.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,524.0020,359.4121,230.5622,138.9923,086.2924,074.1324,796.35
Payout Ratio79.76%81.81%83.85%85.90%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,572.0016,655.3417,802.8819,018.1220,304.7721,666.7122,936.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate3.28%4.28%5.28%
Year 1 PV (M)15,174.1015,321.0215,467.94
Year 2 PV (M)14,777.0915,064.6315,354.95
Year 3 PV (M)14,381.8814,803.7015,233.68
Year 4 PV (M)13,989.2914,539.0115,104.79
Year 5 PV (M)13,600.0314,271.3214,968.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)252,179.92264,627.33277,561.48
Equity Value (M)324,102.31338,627.02353,691.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,727.001,727.001,727.00
Fair Value$187.67$196.08$204.80
Upside / Downside1.58%6.13%10.85%

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