Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cairn Homes plc (C5H.IR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.28 - $18.28$10.95
Multi-Stage$5.19 - $5.66$5.42
Blended Fair Value$8.18
Current Price$2.14
Upside282.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.83%0.00%0.070.060.060.030.000.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--6.74%2.95%104.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.96%4.90%7.24%2.73%0.00%2.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)210.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)92.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)117.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.1126.3215.79
Cash Retained (M)117.59117.59117.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.11-26.32-15.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.4891.27101.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)647.61647.61647.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.28$10.95$18.28
Upside / Downside240.30%411.46%754.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)210.57224.26238.83254.36270.89288.50297.15
Payout Ratio44.15%53.32%62.49%71.66%80.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)92.98119.58149.25182.28218.96259.65274.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.27%9.27%9.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)108.41109.44110.47
Year 2 PV (M)122.67125.01127.37
Year 3 PV (M)135.82139.72143.69
Year 4 PV (M)147.91153.60159.45
Year 5 PV (M)159.01166.69174.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,685.452,815.152,949.83
Equity Value (M)3,359.273,509.613,665.47
Shares Outstanding (M)647.61647.61647.61
Fair Value$5.19$5.42$5.66
Upside / Downside142.39%153.24%164.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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