Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Burford Capital Limited (BUR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.24 - $25.33$14.27
Multi-Stage$7.25 - $7.92$7.58
Blended Fair Value$10.92
Current Price$14.26
Upside-23.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.78%6.72%0.120.120.120.180.000.130.110.090.080.07
YoY Growth---0.63%-0.60%-32.61%0.00%-100.00%15.64%23.85%16.33%9.88%8.89%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.79%1.53%1.75%0.00%1.36%0.54%0.57%1.19%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2010.756.45
Cash Retained (M)45.0545.0545.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.20-10.75-6.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.8634.3138.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.40222.40222.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Fair Value$9.24$14.27$25.33
Upside / Downside-35.22%0.06%77.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.9990.9196.11101.61107.42113.57116.98
Payout Ratio47.60%56.08%64.56%73.04%81.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.9350.9862.0574.2287.57102.21108.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)46.6647.1147.55
Year 2 PV (M)51.9852.9753.98
Year 3 PV (M)56.9058.5460.22
Year 4 PV (M)61.4463.8366.27
Year 5 PV (M)65.6468.8372.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,328.791,393.461,460.62
Equity Value (M)1,611.411,684.741,760.79
Shares Outstanding (M)222.40222.40222.40
Fair Value$7.25$7.58$7.92
Upside / Downside-49.19%-46.88%-44.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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