Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ball Corporation (BLL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$212.87 - $415.03$293.04
Multi-Stage$352.30 - $387.54$369.58
Blended Fair Value$331.31
Current Price$69.49
Upside376.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS13.60%14.72%0.850.800.690.640.480.450.290.250.250.26
YoY Growth--6.55%15.66%8.79%32.85%6.20%55.42%15.60%-1.24%-3.32%21.68%
Dividend Yield--1.23%0.89%0.82%0.98%0.82%1.14%0.78%0.70%0.72%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,811.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)361.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,450.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)762.20476.38285.83
Cash Retained (M)3,450.003,450.003,450.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-762.20-476.38-285.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,687.802,973.633,164.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)285.98285.98285.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.4010.4011.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.4010.4011.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.6611.6612.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Fair Value$212.87$293.04$415.03
Upside / Downside206.33%321.70%497.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,811.003,889.053,968.714,049.994,132.944,217.584,344.11
Payout Ratio9.47%25.58%41.68%57.79%73.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)361.00994.741,654.302,340.453,054.013,795.834,018.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.11%6.11%6.11%
Growth Rate1.05%2.05%3.05%
Year 1 PV (M)928.29937.48946.66
Year 2 PV (M)1,440.651,469.301,498.24
Year 3 PV (M)1,902.021,959.052,017.21
Year 4 PV (M)2,316.112,409.172,505.00
Year 5 PV (M)2,686.382,821.962,962.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)91,480.0296,097.06100,898.67
Equity Value (M)100,753.48105,694.03110,828.75
Shares Outstanding (M)285.98285.98285.98
Fair Value$352.30$369.58$387.54
Upside / Downside406.99%431.85%457.68%

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