Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Black Hills Corporation (BKH)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$172.38 - $772.62$401.50
Multi-Stage$139.13 - $152.54$145.71
Blended Fair Value$273.60
Current Price$56.10
Upside387.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.90%10.10%2.532.332.172.011.881.731.481.341.211.01
YoY Growth--8.45%7.28%8.07%7.06%8.66%16.94%10.18%10.48%20.61%4.26%
Dividend Yield--4.16%4.33%3.44%2.61%2.81%2.70%2.02%2.47%1.83%1.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)284.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)144.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.9635.6021.36
Cash Retained (M)140.70140.70140.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.96-35.60-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.74105.10119.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.1872.1872.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.461.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.461.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.163.453.65
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate3.84%4.84%5.84%
Fair Value$172.38$401.50$772.62
Upside / Downside207.28%615.68%1,277.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)284.80298.58313.03328.17344.05360.70371.52
Payout Ratio50.60%58.48%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)144.10174.60207.72243.63282.53324.63343.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.74%5.74%5.74%
Growth Rate3.84%4.84%5.84%
Year 1 PV (M)163.55165.12166.70
Year 2 PV (M)182.25185.78189.34
Year 3 PV (M)200.23206.07212.02
Year 4 PV (M)217.50226.00234.75
Year 5 PV (M)234.09245.58257.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,043.869,487.809,949.01
Equity Value (M)10,041.4710,516.3511,009.34
Shares Outstanding (M)72.1872.1872.18
Fair Value$139.13$145.71$152.54
Upside / Downside148.00%159.73%171.90%

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