Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Banco do Estado de Sergipe S.A. (BGIP3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$291.75 - $1,663.81$548.98
Multi-Stage$184.16 - $201.59$192.71
Blended Fair Value$370.85
Current Price$31.51
Upside1,076.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS192.21%37.39%2.321.541.741.020.130.010.181.380.030.83
YoY Growth--50.97%-11.80%71.43%665.86%1,118.67%-94.09%-86.62%5,297.91%-96.93%759.10%
Dividend Yield--8.60%6.25%6.63%4.22%0.34%0.02%0.50%3.14%0.10%7.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)136.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6921.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)136.83136.83136.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.69-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)102.14115.15123.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.6420.6420.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.955.586.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.771.771.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.955.586.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.727.357.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Fair Value$291.75$548.98$1,663.81
Upside / Downside825.89%1,642.25%5,180.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.45183.94195.06206.86219.37232.63239.61
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.44%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.6264.1794.93129.17167.20209.37221.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.47%7.47%7.47%
Growth Rate5.05%6.05%7.05%
Year 1 PV (M)59.1559.7160.28
Year 2 PV (M)80.6582.1983.75
Year 3 PV (M)101.15104.07107.04
Year 4 PV (M)120.69125.36130.15
Year 5 PV (M)139.30146.06153.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,301.053,461.193,627.49
Equity Value (M)3,802.003,978.584,161.79
Shares Outstanding (M)20.6420.6420.64
Fair Value$184.16$192.71$201.59
Upside / Downside484.45%511.60%539.76%

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