DDM Analysis: BGC

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.79 - $6.19	$4.86
Multi-Stage	$7.83 - $8.62	$8.21
Blended Fair Value	$6.54
Current Price	$9.46
Upside	-30.89%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-29.23%	-10.63%	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.13	0.40	0.48	0.41	0.50	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	96.57%	16.97%	-1.58%	-75.02%	-68.59%	-16.85%	15.66%	-16.70%	82.88%	24.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.77%	0.47%	0.59%	0.71%	2.59%	15.80%	8.67%	4.79%	6.80%	4.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	165.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	39.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	126.73

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	33.16	20.72	12.43
Cash Retained (M)	126.73	126.73	126.73
(-) Cash Required (M)	-33.16	-20.72	-12.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)	93.57	106.01	114.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	483.48	483.48	483.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.19	0.22	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-0.87%	0.13%	1.13%
Fair Value	$3.79	$4.86	$6.19
Upside / Downside	-59.96%	-48.60%	-34.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	165.79	166.01	166.22	166.43	166.64	166.85	171.86
Payout Ratio	23.56%	36.85%	50.14%	63.42%	76.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	39.06	61.17	83.34	105.56	127.83	150.17	158.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	-0.87%	0.13%	1.13%
Year 1 PV (M)	56.97	57.54	58.12
Year 2 PV (M)	72.28	73.74	75.22
Year 3 PV (M)	85.26	87.86	90.52
Year 4 PV (M)	96.16	100.09	104.15
Year 5 PV (M)	105.19	110.61	116.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,367.97	3,541.31	3,721.72
Equity Value (M)	3,783.82	3,971.16	4,165.97
Shares Outstanding (M)	483.48	483.48	483.48
Fair Value	$7.83	$8.21	$8.62
Upside / Downside	-17.27%	-13.17%	-8.91%

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BGC Group, Inc (BGC)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener