Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Civitas Resources, Inc. (BCEI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156.74 - $405.72$237.86
Multi-Stage$117.50 - $127.85$122.58
Blended Fair Value$180.22
Current Price$56.10
Upside221.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%5.287.055.740.650.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---25.21%22.98%783.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.40%12.57%10.22%1.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)627.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)10.1710.1710.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-117.46-69.60-37.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
LTM Dividend per Share6.716.716.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.25-0.74-0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.455.966.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$156.74$237.86$405.72
Upside / Downside179.39%323.99%623.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.91874.27900.49
Payout Ratio98.41%96.73%95.04%93.36%91.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)627.94657.33687.89719.64752.62786.84832.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.17%9.17%9.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)596.46602.12607.77
Year 2 PV (M)566.39577.18588.07
Year 3 PV (M)537.66553.09568.82
Year 4 PV (M)510.23529.85550.03
Year 5 PV (M)484.03507.41531.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,303.678,704.749,121.16
Equity Value (M)10,998.4311,474.3711,967.52
Shares Outstanding (M)93.6193.6193.61
Fair Value$117.50$122.58$127.85
Upside / Downside109.44%118.50%127.89%

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