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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41,864.99 - $111,321.37$104,324.43
Multi-Stage$16,122.83 - $17,626.46$16,860.92
Blended Fair Value$60,592.67
Current Price$4,120.00
Upside1,370.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.74%14.43%280.46196.5073.0922.00103.18100.70127.85106.4660.8172.31
YoY Growth--42.73%168.84%232.23%-78.68%2.46%-21.23%20.09%75.07%-15.91%-0.76%
Dividend Yield--6.61%3.48%1.56%0.53%3.60%5.27%2.72%2.45%1.88%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,866,036.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13,951,339.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,914,697.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,173,207.202,608,254.501,564,952.70
Cash Retained (M)6,914,697.006,914,697.006,914,697.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,173,207.20-2,608,254.50-1,564,952.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,741,489.804,306,442.505,349,744.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37,277.0637,277.0637,277.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share73.54115.53143.51
LTM Dividend per Share374.26374.26374.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share73.54115.53143.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend447.80489.79517.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41,864.99$104,324.43$111,321.37
Upside / Downside916.14%2,432.15%2,601.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,866,036.0022,222,328.3423,666,779.6825,205,120.3626,843,453.1828,588,277.6429,445,925.97
Payout Ratio66.86%71.49%76.12%80.74%85.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13,951,339.0015,886,559.9318,014,415.1720,351,770.8822,916,871.9325,729,449.8827,237,481.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14,759,088.6514,898,985.2315,038,881.80
Year 2 PV (M)15,548,178.5615,844,327.6916,143,270.68
Year 3 PV (M)16,318,913.2116,787,370.5617,264,708.36
Year 4 PV (M)17,071,592.7317,728,118.0118,403,399.76
Year 5 PV (M)17,806,512.9718,666,574.2019,559,552.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)519,507,523.61544,599,931.25570,652,684.40
Equity Value (M)601,011,809.72628,525,306.93657,062,496.99
Shares Outstanding (M)37,277.0637,277.0637,277.06
Fair Value$16,122.83$16,860.92$17,626.46
Upside / Downside291.33%309.25%327.83%

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