Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited (BAY-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.56 - $73.55$58.17
Multi-Stage$65.56 - $71.97$68.70
Blended Fair Value$63.44
Current Price$23.50
Upside169.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.19%2.65%0.860.860.860.750.450.850.870.860.810.84
YoY Growth--0.04%-0.03%14.40%66.67%-47.06%-1.80%0.52%6.16%-3.32%27.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.18%2.96%2.13%1.20%4.47%2.32%2.14%2.11%2.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,887.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,365.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,522.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,177.553,860.972,316.58
Cash Retained (M)24,522.2724,522.2724,522.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,177.55-3,860.97-2,316.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,344.7220,661.3022,205.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,355.767,355.767,355.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.492.813.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.492.813.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.363.673.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Fair Value$45.56$58.17$73.55
Upside / Downside93.88%147.51%212.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,887.7531,397.2331,915.1132,441.5332,976.6433,520.5734,526.18
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,365.4810,827.8815,435.7620,192.7025,102.3730,168.5131,936.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.07%8.07%8.07%
Growth Rate0.65%1.65%2.65%
Year 1 PV (M)9,920.7110,019.2710,117.84
Year 2 PV (M)12,957.6613,216.4213,477.73
Year 3 PV (M)15,530.7415,998.2716,475.09
Year 4 PV (M)17,689.3418,402.9019,137.82
Year 5 PV (M)19,478.2520,465.3021,491.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)406,664.35427,271.81448,706.34
Equity Value (M)482,241.05505,373.96529,406.79
Shares Outstanding (M)7,355.767,355.767,355.76
Fair Value$65.56$68.70$71.97
Upside / Downside178.98%192.36%206.26%

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