DDM Analysis: AZJ.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$37.16 - $71.94	$67.37
Multi-Stage	$37.40 - $41.32	$39.32
Blended Fair Value	$53.34
Current Price	$3.03
Upside	1,660.53%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-10.38%	-2.84%	0.16	0.18	0.18	0.25	0.29	0.28	0.27	0.25	0.30	0.29
YoY Growth	-	-	-8.90%	-0.91%	-28.21%	-13.33%	2.92%	5.37%	5.52%	-16.27%	4.33%	33.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.40%	4.92%	4.63%	6.65%	7.83%	5.76%	4.98%	5.88%	5.67%	6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	709.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	623.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	86.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	141.80	88.63	53.18
Cash Retained (M)	86.00	86.00	86.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-141.80	-88.63	-53.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-55.80	-2.63	32.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,814.49	1,814.49	1,814.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	0.00	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.34	0.34	0.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	0.00	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.36
WACC / Discount Rate	-1.66%	-1.66%	-1.66%
Growth Rate	-2.48%	-1.48%	-0.48%
Fair Value	$37.16	$67.37	$71.94
Upside / Downside	1,126.47%	2,123.35%	2,274.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	709.00	698.50	688.16	677.97	667.93	658.03	677.77
Payout Ratio	87.87%	88.30%	88.72%	89.15%	89.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	623.00	616.75	610.55	604.39	598.29	592.23	626.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-1.66%	-1.66%	-1.66%
Growth Rate	-2.48%	-1.48%	-0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)	620.80	627.16	633.53
Year 2 PV (M)	618.59	631.34	644.22
Year 3 PV (M)	616.37	635.53	655.08
Year 4 PV (M)	614.15	639.73	666.11
Year 5 PV (M)	611.93	643.95	677.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)	64,779.25	68,169.44	71,700.09
Equity Value (M)	67,861.10	71,347.16	74,976.34
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,814.49	1,814.49	1,814.49
Fair Value	$37.40	$39.32	$41.32
Upside / Downside	1,134.31%	1,197.72%	1,263.73%

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Aurizon Holdings Limited (AZJ.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener