Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Andritz AG (AZ2.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.21 - $231.39$144.58
Multi-Stage$72.43 - $78.96$75.63
Blended Fair Value$110.11
Current Price$59.90
Upside83.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.69%16.95%2.532.121.661.010.511.591.601.561.401.05
YoY Growth--19.30%27.63%64.52%99.52%-68.23%-0.10%2.32%11.09%33.48%98.89%
Dividend Yield--4.90%3.73%2.65%2.40%1.32%5.70%4.15%3.36%2.96%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)456.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.3857.1134.27
Cash Retained (M)203.10203.10203.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.38-57.11-34.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.72145.99168.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.1598.1598.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.491.72
LTM Dividend per Share2.592.592.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.491.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.724.074.31
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.21$144.58$231.39
Upside / Downside63.96%141.37%286.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)456.90486.60518.23551.91587.79625.99644.77
Payout Ratio55.55%62.44%69.33%76.22%83.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.80303.83359.28420.66488.51563.39596.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.50%9.50%9.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)274.86277.46280.07
Year 2 PV (M)294.04299.64305.30
Year 3 PV (M)311.45320.40329.51
Year 4 PV (M)327.20339.79352.73
Year 5 PV (M)341.38357.87374.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,559.435,827.956,106.75
Equity Value (M)7,108.377,423.117,749.34
Shares Outstanding (M)98.1598.1598.15
Fair Value$72.43$75.63$78.96
Upside / Downside20.91%26.27%31.82%

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