Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Allianz Ayudhya Capital Public Company Limited (AYUD.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$224.28 - $1,221.74$436.40
Multi-Stage$128.96 - $140.96$134.85
Blended Fair Value$285.63
Current Price$35.00
Upside716.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.22%6.66%2.571.165.911.541.490.740.571.121.281.61
YoY Growth--121.55%-80.37%283.77%3.24%101.15%30.96%-49.62%-12.50%-20.00%19.05%
Dividend Yield--8.03%3.16%14.59%3.46%4.52%2.51%1.17%2.40%3.92%4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,391.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)912.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,478.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)478.27298.92179.35
Cash Retained (M)1,478.851,478.851,478.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-478.27-298.92-179.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,000.581,179.931,299.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.27389.27389.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.573.033.34
LTM Dividend per Share2.342.342.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.573.033.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.915.385.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$224.28$436.40$1,221.74
Upside / Downside540.80%1,146.85%3,390.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,391.362,546.802,712.342,888.653,076.413,276.383,374.67
Payout Ratio38.16%48.53%58.90%69.26%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)912.521,235.891,597.442,000.782,449.802,948.743,121.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,135.571,146.341,157.10
Year 2 PV (M)1,348.651,374.331,400.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,552.061,596.611,642.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,746.131,813.281,882.35
Year 5 PV (M)1,931.162,024.442,121.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,486.0644,538.1646,668.79
Equity Value (M)50,199.6452,493.1654,871.80
Shares Outstanding (M)389.27389.27389.27
Fair Value$128.96$134.85$140.96
Upside / Downside268.46%285.29%302.75%

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