Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.25 - $65.72$54.49
Multi-Stage$80.10 - $88.23$84.09
Blended Fair Value$69.29
Current Price$47.89
Upside44.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS0.00%0.00%0.460.400.360.003.740.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.60%10.49%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.17%0.69%0.57%0.00%12.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)376.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)351.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.3447.0928.25
Cash Retained (M)351.73351.73351.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.34-47.09-28.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.38304.64323.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.6368.6368.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.034.444.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.034.444.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.394.805.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$44.25$54.49$65.72
Upside / Downside-7.61%13.78%37.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)376.71372.94369.21365.52361.87358.25369.00
Payout Ratio6.63%23.31%39.98%56.65%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.9986.92147.61207.08265.34322.42341.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)79.8780.6881.50
Year 2 PV (M)124.64127.20129.78
Year 3 PV (M)160.67165.64170.71
Year 4 PV (M)189.19197.03205.11
Year 5 PV (M)211.24222.24233.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,731.554,977.935,234.47
Equity Value (M)5,497.165,770.726,055.27
Shares Outstanding (M)68.6368.6368.63
Fair Value$80.10$84.09$88.23
Upside / Downside67.26%75.58%84.24%

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