DDM Analysis: ASGR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$840.07 - $1,137.31	$991.97
Multi-Stage	$1,549.49 - $1,700.89	$1,623.70
Blended Fair Value	$1,307.83
Current Price	$1,165.00
Upside	12.26%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.71%	-2.60%	53.00	34.00	27.00	16.00	54.00	74.99	80.99	73.99	119.99	76.99
YoY Growth	-	-	55.88%	25.92%	68.75%	-70.37%	-28.00%	-7.41%	9.46%	-38.33%	55.84%	11.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.46%	4.00%	2.83%	1.84%	6.71%	9.20%	5.83%	4.71%	6.22%	4.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	235,362.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	133,529.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	101,833.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	47,072.40	29,420.25	17,652.15
Cash Retained (M)	101,833.00	101,833.00	101,833.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-47,072.40	-29,420.25	-17,652.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	54,760.60	72,412.75	84,180.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,348.89	1,348.89	1,348.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	40.60	53.68	62.41
LTM Dividend per Share	98.99	98.99	98.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share	40.60	53.68	62.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	139.59	152.67	161.40
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	-5.82%	-4.82%	-3.82%
Fair Value	$840.07	$991.97	$1,137.31
Upside / Downside	-27.89%	-14.85%	-2.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	235,362.00	224,014.12	213,213.37	202,933.37	193,149.02	183,836.42	189,351.51
Payout Ratio	56.73%	63.39%	70.04%	76.69%	83.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	133,529.00	141,995.30	149,334.80	155,636.47	160,983.32	165,452.78	175,150.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	-5.82%	-4.82%	-3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	127,930.96	129,289.34	130,647.73
Year 2 PV (M)	121,217.23	123,805.10	126,420.30
Year 3 PV (M)	113,819.42	117,483.70	121,225.79
Year 4 PV (M)	106,068.77	110,646.04	115,369.88
Year 5 PV (M)	98,216.03	103,542.30	109,097.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,522,841.13	1,605,425.01	1,691,553.47
Equity Value (M)	2,090,093.53	2,190,191.48	2,294,314.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,348.89	1,348.89	1,348.89
Fair Value	$1,549.49	$1,623.70	$1,700.89
Upside / Downside	33.00%	39.37%	46.00%

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PT Astra Graphia Tbk (ASGR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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