Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Arko Corp. (ARKO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.15 - $31.99$29.98
Multi-Stage$10.36 - $11.36$10.85
Blended Fair Value$20.41
Current Price$4.23
Upside382.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.120.120.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.80%31.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.07%2.14%1.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.722.321.39
Cash Retained (M)8.208.208.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.72-2.32-1.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.495.886.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.57115.57115.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.130.140.15
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.15$29.98$31.99
Upside / Downside541.81%608.64%656.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.5919.8021.0822.4523.9125.4726.23
Payout Ratio55.86%62.69%69.52%76.34%83.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.3812.4114.6617.1419.8922.9224.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.7511.8611.97
Year 2 PV (M)13.1313.3813.64
Year 3 PV (M)14.5414.9615.39
Year 4 PV (M)15.9716.5917.22
Year 5 PV (M)17.4318.2719.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,124.811,179.131,235.54
Equity Value (M)1,197.631,254.191,312.90
Shares Outstanding (M)115.57115.57115.57
Fair Value$10.36$10.85$11.36
Upside / Downside144.99%156.56%168.57%

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