Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Home ImprovementSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.56 - $6.93$5.67
Multi-Stage$9.15 - $10.09$9.61
Blended Fair Value$7.64
Current Price$10.63
Upside-28.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.500.000.000.440.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.72%0.00%0.00%5.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.699.185.51
Cash Retained (M)73.0173.0173.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.69-9.18-5.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.3263.8367.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)141.12141.12141.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.56$5.67$6.93
Upside / Downside-57.08%-46.61%-34.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.4672.7372.0071.2870.5769.8671.96
Payout Ratio0.61%18.49%36.37%54.25%72.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.4513.4526.1838.6750.8962.8766.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12.4512.5712.70
Year 2 PV (M)22.4322.8923.36
Year 3 PV (M)30.6631.6132.58
Year 4 PV (M)37.3638.9140.50
Year 5 PV (M)42.7244.9447.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,146.121,205.801,267.94
Equity Value (M)1,291.741,356.721,424.34
Shares Outstanding (M)141.12141.12141.12
Fair Value$9.15$9.61$10.09
Upside / Downside-13.89%-9.56%-5.05%

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