Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Antero Resources Corporation (AR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.70 - $27.94$22.38
Multi-Stage$27.45 - $30.16$28.78
Blended Fair Value$25.58
Current Price$33.56
Upside-23.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)547.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)453.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109.5468.4741.08
Cash Retained (M)453.78453.78453.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-109.54-68.47-41.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)344.24385.32412.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)313.11313.11313.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.101.231.32
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.101.231.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.401.531.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-0.03%0.97%1.97%
Fair Value$17.70$22.38$27.94
Upside / Downside-47.27%-33.31%-16.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)547.72553.06558.45563.89569.39574.93592.18
Payout Ratio17.15%31.72%46.29%60.86%75.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.94175.44258.51343.19429.49517.44547.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate-0.03%0.97%1.97%
Year 1 PV (M)161.01162.62164.23
Year 2 PV (M)217.75222.12226.54
Year 3 PV (M)265.30273.34281.54
Year 4 PV (M)304.72317.09329.84
Year 5 PV (M)336.93354.12372.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,308.627,681.538,069.51
Equity Value (M)8,594.329,010.839,443.68
Shares Outstanding (M)313.11313.11313.11
Fair Value$27.45$28.78$30.16
Upside / Downside-18.21%-14.25%-10.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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