Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Asia Network International Public Company Limited (ANI.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.51 - $2.02$1.77
Multi-Stage$2.12 - $2.30$2.21
Blended Fair Value$1.99
Current Price$3.44
Upside-42.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.250.450.140.060.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---44.85%232.07%118.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--9.33%9.44%2.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)604.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)570.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.0075.6245.37
Cash Retained (M)34.7034.7034.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.00-75.62-45.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)-86.29-40.92-10.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,847.951,847.951,847.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.05-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate15.01%15.01%15.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.51$1.77$2.02
Upside / Downside-56.14%-48.51%-41.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)604.98598.93592.94587.01581.14575.33592.59
Payout Ratio94.26%93.41%92.56%91.71%90.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)570.28559.47548.82538.32527.98517.80548.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.01%15.01%15.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)481.54486.45491.37
Year 2 PV (M)406.57414.91423.34
Year 3 PV (M)343.25353.87364.70
Year 4 PV (M)289.77301.77314.15
Year 5 PV (M)244.59257.33270.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,156.002,268.272,385.16
Equity Value (M)3,921.724,082.604,249.31
Shares Outstanding (M)1,847.951,847.951,847.95
Fair Value$2.12$2.21$2.30
Upside / Downside-38.31%-35.78%-33.15%

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