Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food DistributionSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133.45 - $444.98$417.01
Multi-Stage$58.28 - $63.77$60.97
Blended Fair Value$238.99
Current Price$39.81
Upside500.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.50%7.72%0.800.770.750.720.700.670.570.550.530.49
YoY Growth--3.55%3.10%3.63%3.23%4.01%18.67%2.68%4.55%9.05%27.52%
Dividend Yield--1.87%1.37%1.82%1.44%2.56%3.60%1.75%1.67%1.40%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.679.175.50
Cash Retained (M)46.6746.6746.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.67-9.17-5.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.9937.5041.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.7932.7932.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.981.141.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.981.141.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.791.962.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$133.45$417.01$444.98
Upside / Downside235.22%947.49%1,017.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.3778.1483.2288.6394.39100.52103.54
Payout Ratio36.39%47.11%57.84%68.56%79.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.7036.8148.1360.7674.8390.4795.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.92%6.92%6.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1134.4334.76
Year 2 PV (M)41.3242.1042.90
Year 3 PV (M)48.3349.7251.13
Year 4 PV (M)55.1557.2759.45
Year 5 PV (M)61.7864.7667.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,670.411,751.091,834.86
Equity Value (M)1,911.091,999.372,090.95
Shares Outstanding (M)32.7932.7932.79
Fair Value$58.28$60.97$63.77
Upside / Downside46.40%53.16%60.17%

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