Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Alucon Public Company Limited (ALUCON.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.74 - $253.40$213.58
Multi-Stage$260.80 - $285.48$272.91
Blended Fair Value$243.24
Current Price$187.00
Upside30.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.36%0.00%8.0010.0010.0010.007.5010.0011.0015.0010.0010.00
YoY Growth---20.00%0.00%0.00%33.33%-25.00%-9.09%-26.65%49.97%0.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--4.43%5.67%5.20%5.13%4.14%8.33%6.16%6.07%3.23%4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,053.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)518.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)535.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)210.72131.7079.02
Cash Retained (M)535.19535.19535.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-210.72-131.70-79.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)324.47403.49456.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.2043.2043.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.519.3410.56
LTM Dividend per Share12.0012.0012.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.519.3410.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.5121.3422.56
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.99%0.01%1.01%
Fair Value$175.74$213.58$253.40
Upside / Downside-6.02%14.21%35.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,053.591,053.661,053.741,053.811,053.891,053.961,085.58
Payout Ratio49.20%57.36%65.52%73.68%81.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)518.40604.41690.43776.46862.51948.561,004.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.99%0.01%1.01%
Year 1 PV (M)543.97549.46554.96
Year 2 PV (M)559.25570.60582.07
Year 3 PV (M)566.04583.37601.04
Year 4 PV (M)565.89589.10613.02
Year 5 PV (M)560.12588.98619.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,470.698,907.209,361.52
Equity Value (M)11,265.9511,788.7212,331.64
Shares Outstanding (M)43.2043.2043.20
Fair Value$260.80$272.91$285.48
Upside / Downside39.47%45.94%52.66%

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