Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16,634.78 - $24,212.42$22,690.58
Multi-Stage$4,133.07 - $4,519.37$4,322.69
Blended Fair Value$13,506.63
Current Price$1,210.00
Upside1,016.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.26%22.77%99.88124.8541.9526.9719.9936.5744.7030.3618.1725.92
YoY Growth---20.00%197.62%55.56%34.90%-45.33%-18.18%47.20%67.08%-29.88%101.86%
Dividend Yield--9.12%7.30%2.71%2.96%3.10%9.26%4.70%2.68%1.45%1.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,405,838.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,977,629.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)428,208.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)481,167.63300,729.77180,437.86
Cash Retained (M)428,208.68428,208.68428,208.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-481,167.63-300,729.77-180,437.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-52,958.95127,478.91247,770.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
LTM Dividend per Share100.08100.08100.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share-2.686.4512.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend97.40106.53112.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.12%6.12%6.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16,634.78$22,690.58$24,212.42
Upside / Downside1,274.78%1,775.25%1,901.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,405,838.142,562,217.612,728,761.762,906,131.273,095,029.813,296,206.743,395,092.95
Payout Ratio82.20%83.76%85.32%86.88%88.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,977,629.462,146,139.472,328,200.302,524,861.592,737,252.212,966,586.073,140,460.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.12%6.12%6.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,003,424.272,022,414.082,041,403.88
Year 2 PV (M)2,028,851.782,067,495.712,106,504.20
Year 3 PV (M)2,053,915.372,112,875.902,172,954.13
Year 4 PV (M)2,078,618.432,158,556.232,240,777.80
Year 5 PV (M)2,102,964.312,204,538.272,309,999.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,405,699.9574,854,621.9578,435,542.32
Equity Value (M)81,673,474.1185,420,502.1489,307,182.04
Shares Outstanding (M)19,760.9819,760.9819,760.98
Fair Value$4,133.07$4,322.69$4,519.37
Upside / Downside241.58%257.25%273.50%

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