Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (AHOG.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.67 - $445.04$148.90
Multi-Stage$61.93 - $67.81$64.82
Blended Fair Value$106.86
Current Price$34.45
Upside210.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.42%9.62%1.141.151.070.941.131.220.830.790.470.43
YoY Growth---0.67%6.64%14.37%-16.57%-7.90%47.16%5.14%67.83%8.33%-4.35%
Dividend Yield--3.29%4.14%3.40%3.22%4.74%5.74%3.52%4.10%2.35%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,066.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,070.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)996.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)996.00996.00996.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)582.80737.75841.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)911.75911.75911.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.640.810.92
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.640.810.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.811.982.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$78.67$148.90$445.04
Upside / Downside128.35%332.22%1,191.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,066.002,172.682,284.872,402.852,526.922,657.402,737.12
Payout Ratio51.79%59.43%67.07%74.72%82.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,070.001,291.281,532.561,795.322,081.122,391.662,531.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,200.221,211.741,223.27
Year 2 PV (M)1,324.031,349.581,375.37
Year 3 PV (M)1,441.661,483.581,526.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,553.321,613.831,676.09
Year 5 PV (M)1,659.211,740.401,824.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)49,284.6551,696.2454,201.33
Equity Value (M)56,463.0959,095.3761,827.10
Shares Outstanding (M)911.75911.75911.75
Fair Value$61.93$64.82$67.81
Upside / Downside79.76%88.14%96.84%

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