Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

AGCO Corporation (AGCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.05 - $198.90$132.48
Multi-Stage$96.54 - $105.80$101.08
Blended Fair Value$116.78
Current Price$107.07
Upside9.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.58%20.94%3.666.125.414.800.640.640.630.600.570.56
YoY Growth---40.29%13.13%12.78%646.88%0.00%1.91%5.84%4.71%1.19%2.94%
Dividend Yield--3.95%5.08%4.00%3.29%0.45%1.36%0.90%0.92%0.95%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.0646.9128.15
Cash Retained (M)288.80288.80288.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.06-46.91-28.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)213.74241.89260.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.7074.7074.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.863.243.49
LTM Dividend per Share1.161.161.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.863.243.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.024.404.65
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$93.05$132.48$198.90
Upside / Downside-13.09%23.73%85.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.30391.15407.66424.87442.81461.51475.35
Payout Ratio23.05%36.44%49.83%63.22%76.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.50142.53203.13268.60339.23415.35439.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)131.09132.36133.63
Year 2 PV (M)171.84175.19178.57
Year 3 PV (M)208.99215.13221.38
Year 4 PV (M)242.77252.32262.14
Year 5 PV (M)273.40286.90300.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,183.526,488.916,806.24
Equity Value (M)7,211.627,550.817,902.90
Shares Outstanding (M)74.7074.7074.70
Fair Value$96.54$101.08$105.80
Upside / Downside-9.83%-5.59%-1.19%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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