Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Afya Limited (AFYA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$97.05 - $167.11$127.26
Multi-Stage$423.85 - $468.21$445.59
Blended Fair Value$286.43
Current Price$82.95
Upside245.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.410.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)600.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.8991.1854.71
Cash Retained (M)600.42600.42600.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.89-91.18-54.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.53509.24545.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.296.887.27
WACC / Discount Rate4.35%4.35%4.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$97.05$127.26$167.11
Upside / Downside17.00%53.42%101.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.43722.13714.91707.76700.68693.68714.49
Payout Ratio17.69%32.15%46.61%61.07%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.01232.16333.23432.26529.28624.31660.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.35%4.35%4.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)220.22222.47224.72
Year 2 PV (M)299.86306.01312.22
Year 3 PV (M)368.98380.39392.03
Year 4 PV (M)428.57446.33464.64
Year 5 PV (M)479.54504.51530.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,515.8139,469.3541,503.43
Equity Value (M)39,312.9941,329.0743,427.56
Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
Fair Value$423.85$445.59$468.21
Upside / Downside410.97%437.18%464.45%

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