Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

American Equity Investment Life Holding Company (AEL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.45 - $69.59$58.11
Multi-Stage$80.56 - $88.73$84.56
Blended Fair Value$71.34
Current Price$56.47
Upside26.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.540.920.930.780.340.310.290.260.22
YoY Growth---100.00%-40.88%-1.66%20.44%128.44%8.07%9.15%9.65%18.10%19.04%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.97%2.52%2.34%2.46%1.81%1.15%0.98%1.11%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)497.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)486.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.5762.2337.34
Cash Retained (M)486.92486.92486.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.57-62.23-37.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.35424.69449.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.3880.3880.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.825.285.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.825.285.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.955.425.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$47.45$58.11$69.59
Upside / Downside-15.97%2.90%23.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)497.84492.86487.93483.05478.22473.44487.65
Payout Ratio2.19%19.75%37.32%54.88%72.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9297.36182.08265.09346.42426.10451.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)89.0589.9690.87
Year 2 PV (M)152.31155.43158.59
Year 3 PV (M)202.81209.08215.48
Year 4 PV (M)242.40252.44262.80
Year 5 PV (M)272.69286.89301.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,516.275,803.516,102.60
Equity Value (M)6,475.516,797.317,132.00
Shares Outstanding (M)80.3880.3880.38
Fair Value$80.56$84.56$88.73
Upside / Downside42.66%49.75%57.13%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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