Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aegean Airlines S.A. (AEGN.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$481.35 - $567.17$531.49
Multi-Stage$155.66 - $170.76$163.07
Blended Fair Value$347.28
Current Price$12.20
Upside2,746.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.60%0.00%0.760.000.000.000.000.480.440.320.560.56
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%9.10%37.48%-42.82%0.01%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%12.68%5.89%3.94%8.28%7.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)256.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.3332.0819.25
Cash Retained (M)184.09184.09184.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.33-32.08-19.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)132.76152.01164.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.4989.4989.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.481.701.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.481.701.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.292.512.65
WACC / Discount Rate4.87%4.87%4.87%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Fair Value$481.35$531.49$567.17
Upside / Downside3,845.46%4,256.48%4,548.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)256.63271.78287.82304.81322.80341.85352.10
Payout Ratio28.27%40.61%52.96%65.31%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.54110.38152.43199.06250.66307.66325.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.87%4.87%4.87%
Growth Rate4.90%5.90%6.90%
Year 1 PV (M)104.26105.25106.25
Year 2 PV (M)135.99138.60141.23
Year 3 PV (M)167.75172.59177.53
Year 4 PV (M)199.52207.24215.18
Year 5 PV (M)231.32242.55254.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,090.2313,726.1614,386.58
Equity Value (M)13,929.0614,592.4015,280.98
Shares Outstanding (M)89.4989.4989.49
Fair Value$155.66$163.07$170.76
Upside / Downside1,175.87%1,236.63%1,299.70%

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