Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

ADT Inc. (ADT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.85 - $6.94$5.87
Multi-Stage$7.71 - $8.47$8.08
Blended Fair Value$6.98
Current Price$8.71
Upside-19.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.24%0.00%0.200.140.140.130.120.620.090.820.000.00
YoY Growth--41.75%1.15%9.26%6.42%-80.64%610.94%-89.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.45%2.17%1.92%1.68%1.42%14.31%1.33%10.35%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)640.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)448.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)128.1180.0748.04
Cash Retained (M)448.71448.71448.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-128.11-80.07-48.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)320.59368.64400.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)913.55913.55913.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.610.65
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.85$5.87$6.94
Upside / Downside-44.34%-32.56%-20.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)640.56634.15627.81621.53615.32609.16627.44
Payout Ratio29.95%41.96%53.97%65.98%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.85266.09338.83410.09479.89548.25580.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)240.91243.36245.82
Year 2 PV (M)277.72283.42289.17
Year 3 PV (M)304.31313.72323.32
Year 4 PV (M)322.39335.76349.53
Year 5 PV (M)333.46350.82368.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,567.915,857.856,159.73
Equity Value (M)7,046.707,384.927,736.48
Shares Outstanding (M)913.55913.55913.55
Fair Value$7.71$8.08$8.47
Upside / Downside-11.44%-7.19%-2.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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