Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (ADS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.08 - $55.61$47.21
Multi-Stage$98.22 - $108.49$103.25
Blended Fair Value$75.23
Current Price$56.80
Upside32.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.53%0.00%0.880.860.880.861.242.622.572.370.620.00
YoY Growth--2.38%-2.33%2.38%-30.69%-52.43%1.76%8.40%285.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.56%1.52%1.56%1.54%1.11%7.78%1.46%1.11%0.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)293.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.7436.7122.03
Cash Retained (M)231.80231.80231.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.74-36.71-22.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)173.06195.09209.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.6848.6848.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.564.014.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.564.014.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.835.285.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate-4.98%-3.98%-2.98%
Fair Value$39.08$47.21$55.61
Upside / Downside-31.20%-16.88%-2.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)293.70282.01270.79260.02249.67239.73246.93
Payout Ratio21.08%34.86%48.65%62.43%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.9098.31131.73162.33190.29215.76228.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.76%6.76%6.76%
Growth Rate-4.98%-3.98%-2.98%
Year 1 PV (M)91.1392.0993.05
Year 2 PV (M)113.18115.58118.00
Year 3 PV (M)129.29133.41137.62
Year 4 PV (M)140.48146.49152.69
Year 5 PV (M)147.65155.58163.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,159.014,382.514,615.52
Equity Value (M)4,780.745,025.665,280.73
Shares Outstanding (M)48.6848.6848.68
Fair Value$98.22$103.25$108.49
Upside / Downside72.92%81.78%91.00%

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