Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

ACNB Corporation (ACNB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.19 - $664.69$218.14
Multi-Stage$68.38 - $74.74$71.50
Blended Fair Value$144.82
Current Price$44.04
Upside228.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.13%8.77%1.090.990.930.910.880.700.640.530.490.49
YoY Growth--10.42%6.42%1.66%3.26%25.51%10.53%19.64%8.12%0.41%4.28%
Dividend Yield--2.65%2.76%2.85%2.61%3.02%2.35%1.70%1.82%1.71%2.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)32.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.574.112.46
Cash Retained (M)20.4720.4720.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.57-4.11-2.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.9016.3718.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.839.839.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.671.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.671.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$116.19$218.14$664.69
Upside / Downside163.83%395.31%1,409.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)32.8434.9837.2539.6742.2545.0046.34
Payout Ratio37.66%48.13%58.60%69.07%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.3716.8321.8327.4033.6040.5042.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15.4515.6015.74
Year 2 PV (M)18.3918.7419.09
Year 3 PV (M)21.1921.7922.41
Year 4 PV (M)23.8524.7625.71
Year 5 PV (M)26.3827.6528.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)566.68594.05622.47
Equity Value (M)671.93702.60734.40
Shares Outstanding (M)9.839.839.83
Fair Value$68.38$71.50$74.74
Upside / Downside55.27%62.36%69.71%

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