Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$207.24 - $448.66$296.35
Multi-Stage$155.76 - $169.83$162.67
Blended Fair Value$229.51
Current Price$90.73
Upside152.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%4.910.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,096.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,878.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,218.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)819.20512.00307.20
Cash Retained (M)2,218.002,218.002,218.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-819.20-512.00-307.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,398.801,706.001,910.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)380.18380.18380.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.684.495.03
LTM Dividend per Share4.944.944.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.684.495.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.629.439.97
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$207.24$296.35$448.66
Upside / Downside128.41%226.63%394.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,096.004,362.244,645.794,947.765,269.375,611.875,780.23
Payout Ratio45.85%54.68%63.51%72.34%81.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,878.002,385.262,950.533,579.204,277.145,050.695,346.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,150.252,170.632,191.01
Year 2 PV (M)2,397.762,443.432,489.53
Year 3 PV (M)2,622.082,697.352,774.05
Year 4 PV (M)2,824.662,933.293,045.02
Year 5 PV (M)3,006.883,152.113,302.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,213.3148,445.4350,762.98
Equity Value (M)59,214.9361,842.2464,565.49
Shares Outstanding (M)380.18380.18380.18
Fair Value$155.76$162.67$169.83
Upside / Downside71.67%79.29%87.18%

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