Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia Tbk (ACES.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$484.87 - $762.08$612.01
Multi-Stage$637.03 - $695.64$665.79
Blended Fair Value$638.90
Current Price$496.00
Upside28.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.47%18.82%33.4831.0420.5832.1318.0528.2322.7316.4115.3415.92
YoY Growth--7.86%50.85%-35.96%77.96%-36.04%24.20%38.49%6.95%-3.59%166.67%
Dividend Yield--6.70%3.41%4.30%3.13%1.18%2.17%1.26%1.23%1.86%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)819,151.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)573,533.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)245,618.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)163,830.26102,393.9161,436.35
Cash Retained (M)245,618.26245,618.26245,618.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-163,830.26-102,393.91-61,436.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)81,788.00143,224.34184,181.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
LTM Dividend per Share33.4833.4833.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.778.3610.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend38.2541.8444.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Fair Value$484.87$612.01$762.08
Upside / Downside-2.24%23.39%53.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)819,151.31839,397.55860,144.19881,403.61903,188.48925,511.78953,277.14
Payout Ratio70.02%74.01%78.01%82.01%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)573,533.06621,258.41670,992.57722,805.68776,770.13832,960.61881,781.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate1.47%2.47%3.47%
Year 1 PV (M)561,941.32567,479.24573,017.15
Year 2 PV (M)548,978.18559,851.83570,832.11
Year 3 PV (M)534,906.19550,877.01567,162.60
Year 4 PV (M)519,956.81540,758.44562,178.06
Year 5 PV (M)504,333.60529,679.24556,033.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,243,095.848,657,358.309,088,111.08
Equity Value (M)10,913,211.9511,406,004.0511,917,334.80
Shares Outstanding (M)17,131.4917,131.4917,131.49
Fair Value$637.03$665.79$695.64
Upside / Downside28.43%34.23%40.25%

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